A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
