Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
